Bitcoin price on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 12 August 2026 will determine this market's outcome. The resolution mechanism relies on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp, with ties resolving to the higher bracket. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular price range or minimal trading activity on this contract relative to broader Bitcoin markets.

Historical Bitcoin price volatility over comparable timeframes—particularly around macroeconomic announcements, Federal Reserve decisions, or geopolitical events—demonstrates that single-day price movements exceeding 5–10% occur roughly 15–20% of the time during periods of elevated uncertainty. The two-year settlement window to August 2026 encompasses multiple potential catalyst cycles: regulatory developments, institutional adoption milestones, and cyclical halving-related dynamics that have historically shaped Bitcoin's trajectory. Previous prediction markets on Bitcoin prices at fixed future dates have shown that crowd-implied probabilities cluster heavily around consensus price forecasts, with outlier brackets receiving minimal backing unless supported by tail-risk hedging activity.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic calendars for inflation data, central bank policy shifts, and spot Bitcoin ETF flows—all of which have demonstrated measurable correlation with intraday price movements since 2024. The absence of meaningful probability distribution across brackets suggests the market may be awaiting clearer directional signals or that participants view the August 2026 timeframe as too distant for confident price bracketing. Cross-platform comparison with Kalshi's Bitcoin contracts, if available, would reveal whether this divergence reflects genuine disagreement on volatility expectations or simply lower liquidity on this particular settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.