Bitcoin price on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns Bitcoin's spot price at noon Eastern Time on 10 August 2026, as recorded by the Binance BTC/USDT pair on a one-minute candle. Settlement hinges on the precise close price at that specific moment; any deviation from the specified exchange and timeframe results in a "No" resolution. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders assess the outcome as either impossible to predict with confidence or assign negligible likelihood to the precise price bracket in question.

Historical Bitcoin price volatility over comparable multi-year windows demonstrates why long-dated price-point markets attract minimal liquidity. Between August 2023 and August 2024, Bitcoin ranged from roughly $25,000 to $73,000—a swing of nearly 200%. Over two-year horizons, the asset has exhibited even wider excursions. This structural unpredictability explains why prediction markets rarely sustain meaningful odds on exact price brackets years in advance; participants cannot reliably model macroeconomic conditions, regulatory shifts, or technological developments far enough ahead.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve policy signals, which influence broader risk-asset valuations, alongside Bitcoin-specific catalysts such as spot exchange-traded fund flows and institutional adoption announcements. Geopolitical tensions affecting energy markets and currency stability also shape Bitcoin's medium-term trajectory. The absence of meaningful divergence between prediction-market odds and sportsbook lines reflects genuine consensus: the specificity of the settlement terms—a single one-minute candle on a predetermined date—renders the contract functionally illiquid for serious position-building.

Methodology

This page reviews Bitcoin price on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.