In this guide
What Is a Prediction Market?
Prediction markets are venues where traders exchange contracts tied to the results of forthcoming occurrences. The value assigned to each contract mirrors how the broader market assesses the likelihood of that event taking place. PolyGram operates as a UK-based prediction market platform offering participation in worldwide events.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
At their core, prediction market contracts pose a straightforward query: does Event X materialise before Date Y? Consider this scenario: "Will the Labour Party secure victory in the upcoming UK general election?" Two distinct contract types exist:
- YES: Delivers $1.00 upon Labour's election victory
- NO: Delivers $1.00 should Labour fail to win
When YES trades at $0.65, traders collectively estimate Labour has a 65% winning chance. Purchase YES if you believe the outcome more probable, or NO if you expect the opposite. Correct predictions yield gains; incorrect ones result in losses on your investment.
Prediction Markets vs Traditional Betting
- Absence of overround: Traditional bookmakers embed their profit margin — prediction markets do not. Combined YES and NO prices approximate $1.00
- Early exit capability: Liquidate your position at any stage prior to the event concluding
- Full visibility: Market participants access complete pricing information and order book details
- Distributed intelligence: Thousands of market participants contribute data that converges into prices—frequently surpassing accuracy of traditional polling methodologies
Types of Prediction Markets
Political Markets
Electoral contests, leadership approval metrics, legislative outcomes, ministerial transitions. Platforms such as Polymarket maintain the deepest liquidity and highest trading volumes in this category.
Sports Markets
Game results, championship victors, individual athlete statistics, divisional standings.
Crypto Markets
Digital asset price milestones, blockchain network changes, fund product launches, government policy shifts.
World Event Markets
Inflation figures, climate incidents, technological breakthroughs, cultural accolades.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the UK?
Prediction markets occupy uncertain regulatory territory within the United Kingdom. The Gambling Commission neither formally authorises nor explicitly prohibits them. Operators including PolyGram function through decentralised blockchain infrastructure, distinguishing their model from conventional gambling frameworks.
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?
Empirical studies demonstrate that prediction markets consistently surpass both individual expert judgement and aggregated survey data. Polymarket's track record encompasses successful forecasting of the 2024 US presidential race, numerous contests across the European continent, and significant cryptocurrency developments—frequently months in advance of actual occurrence.