In this guide
Macro-level cryptocurrency prediction markets extend well beyond individual token valuations, encompassing total market capitalisation and the cyclical shifts between asset categories. These venues attract strategists focused on portfolio-wide positioning who seek broad-based crypto exposure whilst avoiding concentrated bets on single tokens.
Total Crypto Market Cap Markets
PolyGram pricing snapshot (May 2026):
- Total crypto market cap over $4T in 2026: ~62-68%
- Total crypto market cap over $5T in 2026: ~38-44%
- Total crypto market cap new all-time high in 2026: ~55-62%
Bitcoin Dominance Markets
- BTC dominance over 60% at year-end: ~30-35%
- BTC dominance under 40% at year-end: ~25-30%
When Bitcoin dominance retreats beneath the 45% threshold, altcoin season typically emerges — prediction markets continuously reflect this threshold's probability across the calendar.
Altcoin Season Prediction Markets
- Altcoin Season Index over 75 by Q4 2026: ~42-48%
- Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin in 2026: ~40-46%
- Solana market cap surpasses Ethereum in 2026: ~12-16%
Sector Rotation Trading Strategy
Cryptocurrency markets cycle through recognisable phases:
- BTC leads (dominance rises, capital flows from alts to BTC)
- ETH follows BTC (Ethereum catches up as BTC consolidates)
- Altcoin season (capital flows from BTC/ETH to smaller caps)
Traders employ prediction market odds on Bitcoin dominance and altcoin season metrics as forward-looking signals of these rotation phases — capturing shifts before price discovery fully materialises across the sector.
FAQ
- How is "altcoin season" defined for prediction market purposes?
- The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index serves as the standard reference — readings above 75 suggest altcoins have outpaced Bitcoin performance over the preceding 90-day window.
- What data is used for total market cap resolution?
- CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap total market cap (excluding stablecoins and certain tokens) on the specified date at midnight UTC.
- Are there layer-1 vs layer-2 sector markets?
- PolyGram lists specific sector rotation markets when high-volume events drive interest — L1 competition, DeFi TVL milestones, NFT market volume targets.