In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and breadth of available markets. Kalshi offers the only pathway for US-based participants seeking regulatory compliance. Manifold provides an engaging, cost-free environment for casual forecasters and entertainment-focused prediction activity. For traders across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
The prediction market sector has experienced remarkable growth throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being the sole CFTC-authorised prediction market accessible to US residents, who cannot legally use Polymarket. The platform has expanded considerably in recent months. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, plus regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories from operating.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This makes it an excellent resource for developing forecasting skills and engaging with community-driven prediction — though it does not appeal to those seeking financial returns. The platform hosts more than 10,000 user-generated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of probabilistic estimates contributed by its analyst community. Whilst it does not involve monetary stakes, it excels as a venue for establishing prediction credentials and addressing questions of global significance. Researchers regularly reference its track record when studying forecast reliability.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues to process enormous sums across sports and political wagering annually. Strengths include fiat-currency settlement, FCA oversight, and substantial sports market depth. Limitations encompass commissions ranging from 2–5% on net profits, absence of digital-asset markets, and comparatively sparse political market coverage when measured against Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the United States seeking maximum trading liquidity and the broadest range of available markets: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram simplifies the technical barriers inherent in cryptocurrency whilst preserving your connection to Polymarket's complete order book. Start trading on PolyGram →