In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading volume and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi stands out as the sole CFTC-authorised option for American participants. Manifold excels for recreational forecasting using virtual currency with no financial stakes. Throughout Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the sector's leading venues stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market venue. It welcomes US-domiciled traders (who cannot access Polymarket) and has experienced substantial expansion. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available contracts relative to Polymarket, and regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories from operating.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform serves as an excellent resource for honing forecasting abilities and participating in crowd-sourced prediction — though it does not cater to those seeking financial returns. The ecosystem encompasses more than 10,000 user-generated prediction contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of probabilistic estimates contributed by its forecaster community. Whilst no monetary stakes are involved, it excels as a venue for establishing forecast accuracy records and specialises in long-term geopolitical prediction. Research institutions frequently reference its data when examining prediction quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues to process substantial sums across sports and political wagering annually. Strengths include fiat settlement, FCA authorisation, and unmatched sports market depth. Limitations encompass commission charges of 2-5% on net profits, absence of digital asset markets, and comparatively sparse political market coverage relative to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants across Europe and internationally seeking maximum trading depth and the broadest contract selection: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines blockchain interactions whilst preserving your connection to Polymarket's complete order book. Start trading on PolyGram →