In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential election still more than two years on the horizon, prediction markets are already establishing prices across the field. Republican succession following Trump's constitutional ineligibility and Democratic primary competition are both seeing substantial trading volume. Traders who spot mispricing in these nascent markets stand to benefit significantly as the candidate pool eventually consolidates.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
Trump's third-term prohibition leaves the Republican nomination wide open:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Vice-presidential incumbency edge, Trump-endorsed
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Gubernatorial approval ratings, recovery after 2024 primary stumble
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centre-right coalition, international relations experience
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Two-term Virginia governor, entrepreneurial track record
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Populist economic messaging
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficiently dispersed field allows for surprise contenders
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Leading contender, party establishment backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet-level prominence via Transportation portfolio
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — Californian executive, growing national recognition
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Governor of pivotal Pennsylvania
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Sufficient runway allows emergence of fresh figures
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (statistical toss-up at this juncture)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Engaging with 2028 markets at this stage provides:
- Greater volatility (heightened uncertainty translates to amplified profit potential for prescient positioning)
- Extended holding periods as new information gradually reshapes valuations
- Chance to establish positions in candidates before pivotal announcements drive odds upward
Caveat: nascent markets exhibit heightened sensitivity to surprise developments and shifts in candidate participation.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Historical precedent shows sitting VPs command strength but face no guarantee of success. Bush Sr (1988) inherited Reagan's mantle successfully; Gore's 2000 VP candidacy faltered. Prediction markets treat Vance as the leading contender, though not overwhelmingly favoured.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Both parties' nomination markets settle following their respective national conventions — customarily in July and August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary markets ordinarily become available 6-12 months prior to voting — consult PolyGram's political markets section for current offerings.